Rt by countries
Mortality forecast
Warning: Some countries / regions might have extreme trajectories (typically mild trajectories) with
respect to those of the predicting countries / regions that are used. In such cases, the mixture
probabilities and the forecast using only real-life predictors must be considered with caution and
a parametric predictor can be incorporated to the mixture (just tick the corresponding box).
Associated Papers
Forecast tool: COVID-19 mortality dynamics: The future modelled as a (mixture of) past(s) (2020)
Soubeyrand S., Ribaud M., Baudrot V., Allard D., Pommeret D. and Roques L., Plos one, 15(9), e0238410
Immunity tool: A parsimonious approach for spatial transmission and heterogeneity in the COVID-19 propagation (2020)
Roques L., Bonnefon O., Baudrot V., Soubeyrand S. and Berestycki H., Royal Society Open Science, 7(12), 201382
Rt tool: Towards unified and real-time analyses of outbreaks at country-level during pandemics (2020)
Soubeyrand, S., Demongeot, J., and Roques, L., One Health, 11, 100187.
The current COVID-19 wave will likely be mitigated in the second-line European countries (2020)
Soubeyrand S., Ribaud M., Baudrot V., Allard D., Pommeret D., Roques L.
Team
- Advisory: Lionel Roques and Samuel Soubeyrand
- Shiny app development: Virgile Baudrot , Mélina Ribaud and Jean-François Rey
- Codes, Forecast tool: Samuel Soubeyrand
- Codes, Immunity tool: Olivier Bonnefon and Lionel Roques
- Codes, Rt tool: Olivier Bonnefon and Loïc Houde and Jean-François Rey and Lionel Roques
- Server maintainance: Jean-François Rey
- Cluster computing: Loïc Houde and Olivier Bonnefon
Source of raw data
Data are provided by Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE): systems.jhu.edu and The Covid Tracking Project covidtracking.com
An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time: Lancet Article
Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering: Link to source files
Covid Tracking Project: Link to source files